Challenging the use of extreme event attribution for loss and damage

Aglaé Jézéquel (1) , Pascal Yiou (2) , Jean-Paul Vanderlinden (3)

1 IPSL - Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace
2 LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette]
3 UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines

The Paris agreement recognizes "the importance of averting, minimizing and addressing loss and damage associated with the adverse effects of climate change, including extreme weather events and slow onset events". Hence, it raises the question of discriminating extreme events between those influenced and not influenced by climate change. Extreme event attribution (EEA) is the ensemble of scientific ways to interpret the question "was this event influenced by climate change" and answer it. The relevance of EEA for climate negotiations was debated before the adoption of the Paris Agreement and is still discussed in post Paris Agreement literature. To inform this debate, we propose a phenomenological approach based on interviews. Parker et al. [2017] analyzed interviews from a mix of loss and damage stakeholders at COP 19, and highlighted a variety of opinions regarding the relevance of EEA for loss and damage. We propose to go further by focusing on two distinct groups of stakeholders: EEA scientists and loss and damage delegates (or their advisers). We find that delegates perceive EEA as a useful tool for awareness raising. We outline a number of hurdles raised by both groups, which may hinder EEA to be part of a practical loss and damage mechanism.

Domaines: Climatologie; Environnement et Société

Aglaé Jézéquel, Pascal Yiou, Jean-Paul Vanderlinden. Challenging the use of extreme event attribution for loss and damage. 2018. ⟨hal-01896553⟩